The Government’s population strategy, as described in http://www.environment.gov.au/sustainability/population/index.html, is based partly on “where and how people live” and the assumption that people will want to move out of the city. But the trend world-wide is toward the cities, not away from them, and this is a lifestyle trend that the Government is unlikely to reverse.
Where and how people live will be dependent on employment and lifestyle and there is no indication that the Government has studied employment trends nor that it has consulted the people on their lifestyle or analysed these trends.
Such estimates must be based on direct consultation and a close analysis of integrated trends across lifestyle, technology developments, infrastructure, public services, environmental capacity, national security, employment needs by government and industry, etc. This wide consultative analysis clearly has not been done but it is essential on an on-going basis if we are to determine realistic directions. Individual major initiatives such as large mining projects also need to be planned in these terms.
A realistic foundation for the Government’s present ad hoc long-term plans spanning decades is not possible in principle and it is inevitable that they will be incorrect. 5-year plans are the maximum that are reasonably predictable and practical. Similarly, targets need to be built into the strategy in predictable ways based on on-going social impacts and resource capacity, not as generalised end points. The reality is in the process and the points along the way.
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